Life After the Oil Crash

What a fantastic read - quite the eye opener! Thanks, Ivan. Hope you don't mind if I "steal" the link and post it elsewhere.

Crap. I need to go buy a Toyota Echo, or one of those Erkel cars.

Here's where to start, H4XXOR.

i know! it's crazy! do you guys think it's all legit?

It reminds me of the Transformers and the energon cubes. It sounds pretty legit to me, and I've heard most of the same stuff elsewhere, but some of my friends at stanford say it might not be so bad, they seem to have more hope that we'll come up with a fuel alternative than these guys do.

I'm not so much worried about social anarch as I am that we will no longer be useful, if crap hits the fan...we the designers...especially web based are a little screwed aren't we? My first though was solar panel....to power my computers:)

It may not be ALL legit, but closer to the truth than many would like to admit.

The oil era will end and there will still be plenty of oil left out there. Lets look at history... there was the stone age, then we used metals, .... we found out how to make engines run on pressure due to vapor, then electricity... then oil... and now we already know other sources that can be used besides oil to run the same engines.

We have the technology to renewable sources of energy and have finally started using them in the last 5 years. The switch does not happend over night, it takes a few good years, but once the supply/demmand changes, these sources of energy go down in price where oil will keep on increasing.

Everything has an end. The cigarette manufacturers thaught that they could create a dependancy and become the only legal drug dealers in the world while we can see that now, they will start to fall slowly as most countries are starting to ban cigarettes step by step. Oil companies will see a simillar fall.

In MKTG there is one main rule to be followed: Nothing lasts for ever. Every product/company has a curve that starts from 0, goes up, levels up, and then starts falling. This applies to products/companies/kingdoms/super powers.... everything really as we know it.

I would be more concerned about over 50% of the population's jobs which will be lost and replaced by automated machines (robots) by 2050. :!:

none of the products that you mentioned are so essential to our modern life than oil. as the article said, there is no substitute for oil at this stage of technology.

reminds me, i've got take my Jeep to the garage for a check up next week. :)

Well, we will still use oil, just not as much. Although we have grown out of the stone age, we still use stone, don't we?

New solar pannel and solar absorbtion energies are coming out as well. Many homes and cars will be self sufficient in the future. And there are many other energy sources that will make their appearance in the next decade.

There might be an oil problem boom at the beginning, but things will even out and humanity will adapt once again to a new era and one day will look back to all this as another chapter in history. Fossil fuel burning is just stone age technology compared to what's coming up.

There's no doubt that we'll transition of course, but its that very transition that bothers me, not that life will end. I mean with major disruptions in economic stability comes many bad things for all of us.

Future generations I'm sure will be fine, but what crap luck if we all have to live through a great depression like transition!! I just hope I don't have to live through a political revolution in my lifetime. From what I've read they tend to suck.

I have lived through a political change/revolution as well as a depression. And I cosider myself still a kid.

The economy itself is a chain reaction. It is a loop with either a positive or a negative outcome. If the outcome is positive, the economy is doing good and everyone is happy. If the loop is negative, the economy is crashing into depression. The only problem is that these loops do not last for ever. The economy grows, grows, grows.... till it practically explodes. It settles itself on certain elements (monopolies) and when those crash, it crashes with them.

Kinda like if you invested all your $$ into a single company on the stock market because it had the best profit. When that company crashes, you loose everything you invest in it.

Most people have lived or will live through a depression in their lifetime. With an average life expectancy of 70-80, your chances are pretty good to catch a war or 2 and definitely an economic crash.

What country are you from? If its Canada or the US, I think we've had it pretty damned easy. More to say when I get home...

Now in Canada. But I was born in Romania and lived through the revolution. I have no home, since I have lived about equal parts of my life in 4 different countries although I have a couple of cityzenships.

As for the US and Canada having it easy, yes, but for how long? Calgary, where I live now has an Oil based economy. And yes, life is really really good, but it will crash, and I am not planning on staying here for a lifetime because of that.

As for the US, well, it is an empire that is plunging into the hole fast. Unless it takes over the few countries it wants to, it will hit bottom hard soon and it will hurt!

Thats exactly what I'm worried about. And being from Romania I'm sure you can understand my fears of a social/political upheaval of any sort.

I just finished reading another Ayn Rand book, her first actually called "We the Living". It spends much of its pages describing daily life under the newly created Soviet government in Russia. I doubt something like that would happen here, but who's to say an american version of such a revolution would be much more tolerable?

Perhaps I'm spoiled, but I guess I just can't wish such an experience on anyone. I figure whats most important is maintaining the comparatively liberal civil liberties we have in north america intact since they're so vital to not only a free society, but are core to what most of here feel passionately about...creativity.

Of course though, you're right, we're all bound to come across some seemingly unbearable age, and though it may be for the better, I just hope it won't last my whole lifetime like it did many Russians, if anything happens at all.

All in all, its an interesting topic, because though it sounds crazy in the next few years, do we really look beyond a few years politically? Who knows whats ahead. One thing is for sure for me, the topic makes me very anxious to take advantage of the climate we're in right now, and be as creative, constructive and productive as possible, and enjoy the ride for however long it lasts.

don't worry, until the US starting wars outside of it's own borders you are safe. all the stress will be relieved in those war zones.

PIMPTRIX wrote:

I wasn't aware that the U.S. was interested in "taking over" any countries. This is cause for concern...which ones?

I wasn't aware that the U.S. was interested in "taking over" any countries. This is cause for concern...which ones?

Well, it has already started it's journee with Afganistan and Iraq. You really think they are gonna stop there? Sit back and enjoy the show for the next few years. ;)

Here is a nice little read: http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GC03Dj02.html

Of course, these days countries do not just "take over". That was a few centuries ago. These days, they establish their military in certain countries after putting down the regime and having "free" elections.

Ah. I thought you meant "take over" in the sense of "annex."

no, no, that fashion is outdated. Why would I want your registration transfered to me if I know I can drive your car with your name on it? ;)

What did the U.S. gain in "taking over" Afghanistan?

Does the TransAfghan gas pipeline project ring a bell?

The US government will work to create tax shelters on foreign soil for Executive bigwigs in the oil biz AND is willing to commit the US military to the defense of private investments. Am I right?

It's perfectly planned. There is no doubt, it's all about the oil.

Not that I blame them, if this saves the world economy. :D

Many say that even 9/11 was staged. Only such an attack would justify send on the US troops to invade two sovereign countries. I can't believe this, but maybe I'm just too naive. However it does look suspicous that it's all just too perfect. Let's look at the events of the recent past starting from the late nineties till Today.

1. Oil reserves running out. The US needs oil badly, since the whole economy and all the oil businesses depend on it.

2. There are only a very few places on earth that still has big reserves that are easy to extract (meaning below 30USD/barrel).

3. All the countries where good quality oil is abundant and cheap to extract are in the middle east. Saudi is a tough nut, but the US companies are already present for decades. The rest of the Gulf countries are all working with US oil companies as well. There are only few countries that still has lots of oil and gas, but no way to establish similar relationships as the GCC countries because of the political situation.

4. People don't know much about these islamic countries. They are so distant culturally and physically the people in the US can't really associate with them. So it's relatively easy to manipulate the public, unlike if it would be South America or Canada for example.

5. Islam is spreading like crazy. People loose faith literally in Catolicism at a never before seen rate. Neo conservatives hate to see this happening.

6. Radical islamists do small scale terrorist attacks. Palestinians (who are in the same shelf for the West) are fighting their freedom from Israelis for years. Another attack, even a large scale one wouldn't be so unrealistic.

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What's the solution? Long term plans are made by the neo cons. They can relatively easily pull it off. They've got the money, power, people's support and brains. They can kill two birds with one stone. One bird is a fat goose and the other one is completely innocent dove. This is the part we will probably never see, as we don't know who killed Marilyn Monroe either. :) Let's see the next events.

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7. 9/11. It's unbelievable, but the "islamists" apparently pull off a major operation. Much bigger than anybody imagined. They manage to hit the worlds most secure building, the Pentagon. All the details are immediately rewritten by the US government. Apparently it wasn't an airplane that hit the Pentagon. Vitnesses never seen an airplane and the pictures of the event are proof that it was in fact a missile of some sort. They also manage to hit the WTC! Other airplanes are about to hit other cities... At the same time Bush seems to be quite calm about the situation (as we know from F911. :) Looks as if all goes as planned. :twisted:

8. In the US it looks and feels like the US is under attack! In reality this is a minuscule event compared to the damage that would be seen as a real declaration of war against a country. It's like 1% of the damage that a medium earthquake would do in most coutries, or 1% of what damage has been done in Iraq for example. The damage itself wouldn't justify a war, but terror is not about damage, it's about fear.

9. Anthrax. More fear. People are building shelters!!! So far in the big attack against the US lost less than 1% of people compared to the Tzunami disaster, but the news is probably twice as big and it lasts for month. More fear. Building the ground for the counter attack support. When people are afraid they don't think rationally. It's natural to fear for your and your loved ones lifes. You do whatever it takes to get rid of the enemy. But who is it? We're led to believe it's the Islamists.

10. War against Afganistan. Goes smooth. Fear is high, nobody is against the war. Hopefully Saddam will see the demonstration of power and gives in easily.

11. Life is not back to normal until Today in Afganistan. The life of the people in Afganistan is not important. If the investments are secure than it's good enough. Who cares about the stupid people. They are cavemans anyway.

12. War against Saddam declared. The international community and big part of the US is very unhappy. People can't believe that the US can actually attack Iraq. It just seems absurd without any proof for their claims.

13. Saddam doesn't seem to give in for the power demonstration at the beginning, but eventually as it turns out Afganistan worked well. Saddam runs and doesn't fight.

14. All the claims for the attack turn out to be false, as we knew it from the beginning. (I have no clue why not fake the proofs though.) But, at this point we can't undo what has been done.

15. Oil fields are safe. Everything else is second priority. Until the situation is not dangerous for the investments, things can go crazy. Let the different parties blow each other up. The longer it takes for the steady maddness, the better.

16. At the same time, still nothing is done about Palestine. Divide and conquire. The more controlled madness in the region the better.

17. US elections are won by neo cons! Nobody can understand in the international community how can Bush win after such performance of lies. How come he still won? Becuase the US has been safe from attacks and the economy is recovered. Basically Bush did his job well. And this IS true.

18. The goose is already in the works.

19. How about the dove? Yes, ask anyone in the West how they feel about Islam and the Middle East. It's a weird dangerous thing. Better to avoid any contact. In fact Islam means peace and it's one of the most understanding and peaceful religions in the world. I know people who praactice Islam. They are NOT terrorists. But the perception is already bad and it's hard to repair. Think back to before the 9/11 times. Who though bad about Islam? Practically nobody.

20. Next step? Iran has a lot of oil.

21. Surprisingly the tension between the US and Iran is rising. How convenient. Another relatively easy target, but left for last, since it's the toughest one.

Let me say it again. It's a hypotesis and I don't know enough about economy and politics to substantiate this with hard facts. Also, nobody in this world knows all the facts, except those few in the very core. Opinions pro and contra can be very well supported. All I am saying is that in most cases the answer to a very complex questions is a very simple one and the above scenario is just way to well fits the known facts.

I'm not certain about the whole thing and I'm open for you opinions!

returning to the original subject of our discussion if all goes well, we will see the first fusion reactor producing electricity in our lifetime. Have you heard of ITER?

http://www.iter.org/index.htm

I think we will definitely see the first one within the next 20 years. They are hoping for 10 but it's reallly hard to tell. Investors look at supply and demmand... once it changes to extremes, they throw their money where best fit for the future. If the fossil fuel crisis will start faster than expected, investors will go towards fusion faster...

Ok, I have watched and read a lot about the pentagon crash and the idea it was not a boeing 757. So what is your explination to the people that had family aboard the airplane? The plane existed and people died, where is the theory on that? If we only rely on the information in the media, we become slaves to it. But if we rely on internet gossip and conspiracy theories, we become a slave to fear, which is the heart of terrorism. There must be a balance between the two, we must really look at both sides. Isn't it possible that these rumors are started by the same people that caused 911, it seems to help their side.

you got a valid point Bill

**Note** The following is not an attack on Ivan :wink:

That is one huge conspiracy theory. However, you are right that such a large scale attack would justify war. It would be different if the decision to take military action had been decided, say, after the bombing of the USS Cole (another Bin Laden led attack).

2. There are only a very few places on earth that still has big reserves that are easy to extract (meaning below 30USD/barrel).

3. All the countries where good quality oil is abundant and cheap to extract are in the middle east. Saudi is a tough nut, but the US companies are already present for decades. The rest of the Gulf countries are all working with US oil companies as well. There are only few countries that still has lots of oil and gas, but no way to establish similar relationships as the GCC countries because of the political situation.

True, true, and true.

I respectfully disagree. The United States has an abundance of cultural diversity, including Muslims. One of my neighbors is from Iran. He is no more culturally and physically different than my other neighbors who immigrated from Mexico.

This is true, but does Islam not have the same view about the spreading of Chrisitianity? I think so. In fact, I would think that any religion would prefer that their own believers not be converted to something different.

I think both Palestinians and Israelis are equally responsible for the current situation there. Neither is innocent, and one could hardly say the Israelis are the only guilty party.

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What's the solution? Long term plans are made by the neo cons. They can relatively easily pull it off. They've got the money, power, people's support and brains. They can kill two birds with one stone. One bird is a fat goose and the other one is completely innocent dove. This is the part we will probably never see, as we don't know who killed Marilyn Monroe either. :) Let's see the next events.

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This is a sad view of the United States and its people.

WOW! This is the first I've heard of anyone thinking that a missle hit the Pentagon. Read on...

From the New York Law Journal - dated September 12, 2001:

Northern Virginia resident John O’Keefe was one of the many commuters who witnessed the attack on the Pentagon.

“I was going up Interstate 395, up Washington Boulevard, listening to the radio, to the news, to WTOP, and from my left side, I don’t know whether I saw or heard it first -- this silver plane; I immediately recognized it as an American Airlines jet,” said the 25-year-old O’Keefe, managing editor of Influence, an American Lawyer Media publication about lobbying. “It came swooping in over the highway, over my left shoulder, straight across where my car was heading.

“I’d just heard them saying on the radio that National Airport was closing, and I thought, ‘That’s not going to make it to National Airport.’ And then I realized where I was, and that it was going to hit the Pentagon.

“There was a burst of orange flame that shot out that I could see through the highway overpass. Then it was just black. Just black thick smoke.

I guess the U.S. was way off base when it decided to go to war after the bombing of Pearl Harbor - which had even smaller casualties than 9/11. Can you really say that any other country, if put in the same situation, had over 3,000 of its citizens murdered all at once, that it wouldn't take action? I sincerely believe that if 9/11 would have happened to a country other than the U.S., that the rest of the world would have taken more of a stand.

I would guess that of the American population, maybe .0000001 percent built shelters due to the Anthrax scare. Unfortunately, war always gets more media attention that natural disasters - no matter how devestating. If I remember correctly, the men contolling the planes on 9/11 were Muslims, but they were RADICAL Muslims. Americans understand this, as much as other countries would like to make this out to be a war on Islam.

11. Life is not back to normal until Today in Afganistan. The life of the people in Afganistan is not important. If the investments are secure than it's good enough. Who cares about the stupid people. They are cavemans anyway.

Sorry Ivan, but this is an unfair and ignorant thing to say about Americans.

13. Saddam doesn't seem to give in for the power demonstration at the beginning, but eventually as it turns out Afganistan worked well. Saddam runs and doesn't fight.

14. All the claims for the attack turn out to be false, as we knew it from the beginning. (I have no clue why not fake the proofs though.) But, at this point we can't undo what has been done.

Well if my own intelligence, along with Russian and others tell me Iraq has WMD's, then I would believe it too. In fact, the international community's favorite, John Kerry, believed that to be true as well. As is true with all Congressmen, he had access to the same intelligence as the President.

I remember the troops moving into Iraqi cities, not hovering around oil fields.

Boy, the U.S. just can't win! Get involved - get blamed. Stay out - get blamed. I don't really see any other countries doing much about the Israeli Palestinian conflict. It doesn't seem very fair to say this is just another plot of the U.S.

Lies? The Democrats that had said that aren't saying that now. Not even Micheal Moore. It is absurd to say that it's the President's fault when both the Congress and President agreed to military action after being given the same intelligence information. The Democrats didn't want to take the blame for not finding any WMD's, and decided to pass the blame along to the president. According to U.S. polls, Bush won because the majority of citizens distrusted Kerry. Also, the economy hadn't proven recovery until after Bush was re-elected.

19. How about the dove? Yes, ask anyone in the West how they feel about Islam and the Middle East. It's a weird dangerous thing. Better to avoid any contact. In fact Islam means peace and it's one of the most understanding and peaceful religions in the world. I know people who praactice Islam. They are NOT terrorists. But the perception is already bad and it's hard to repair. Think back to before the 9/11 times. Who though bad about Islam? Practically nobody.

Hey, guess what? I know people who practice Islam, too. I would never consider them terrorists. It's very easy for ANYONE to stereotype other people. I don't think this is isolated to Americans. Also, I'm not saying this is right.

Yep. Iran does have a lot of oil.

Pure speculation.

I'm not certain about the whole thing and I'm open for you opinions!

This is not a personal flame against you, Ivan.:) And I'm sorry for tearing your post apart and making my response so long. I am by no means trying to argue with you. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, and It's a blessing to live in a country where a person's opinion is allowed and can make a difference. I'm not saying I know everything either. But I do think the U.S. deserves a little more credit.

thank you for taking the time to compose your reply and sorry if I sounded like discrediting the US. i was really interested in your opinions. certainly i was way exagerating and just putting up a possible(?) scenario. i don't really think this way. :) i'm not a lunatic, but i do think through what people might perceive as conspiration theories. :) i'm actually a fan of the US. those who know me for long can verify! however, this doesn't stop me from analizing things that i know very little about. such discussions however shape everyones opinion.

looks like some predictions from the very first analysis that started this discussion is becoming a reality:

http://economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3831358